Long Term Blackjack Strategy
The problem here, from a mathematical perspective — aka my favorite perspective — is that blackjack strategy is constructed to give you an edge if you adhere to it without deviation and play for a long, long time. It’s like a thousand monkeys on a thousand typewriters — eventually they’re going to write A Tale of Two Cities. You Can Win at Blackjack Without Counting Cards by Getting Lucky. The house edge in blackjack is a long-term phenomenon. In other words, your short-term results might look like anything. You’re mathematically expected to lose between 0.5% and 1% of your action at the table in the long run. But, in the short run, anything can happen. The player wins a prot of3 2B if dealt a blackjack (a total of 21 on the initial 2 cards), as long as the dealer is not also dealt a blackjack. If the dealer shows an Ace, the player may optionally place a side insurance bet ofB 2 that the dealer holds a blackjack (returned with a prot of B on success).
Card counting is meant to achieve two objectives – to help the player assess when to raise his/her bet based on the count and to help him/her assess when to use certain variations to the basic strategy, again taking into consideration the count. To employ variations to the basic strategy at the proper moment of time will usually benefit the player.
See Blackjack Basic Strategy Chart for the Hard Hand. Blackjack Basic Strategy for the Soft Hand. A soft hand is a card hand which contains an Ace that can be counted as 11 points without being bust: it is called to be soft because you will never bust if you have such a hand and ask for one more card. When a player HITs, soft hand may still. Basic strategy is essentially the best way in which you can play blackjack. It’s formulated using statistical probabilities in order to calculate the most optimal move in any circumstance based on the dealer’s starting card and your cards.
Let us illustrate with an example. Imagine that you participate in a six-deck game with S17 and you hold 7-4, while the upcard of the dealer is an Ace. In case you conform to the basic strategy rules, you need to abstain from action in these conditions. At the same time, at your table there could be someone who decides to double down on that hand and has a success. Logically, you would blame yourself for not being decisive and courageous enough to double down on the same hand – you would have doubled your balance. However, professional blackjack players claim that your long-term win from hitting 7-4 represents 0.147 times the original bet you placed, while the long-term win from doubling down on the same hand represents 0.127 times that bet. Or, in case your original bet is $100, your average gain for that hand will be $14.7, while if you double down, you will gain $12.7 on average (13.61% less than what you would have scored as profit, in case you followed basic strategy guidelines).
If you happen to hold such a hand, you may double down, when your true count is +1 or higher! If you play this hand in such a manner, your expectation will move up to 0.148 from 0.147. Although the change may seem insignificant, you may play the hand in such a way by placing a larger bet. This is just one among the 18 basic strategy variations, which experts recommend. In case you play a six-deck game, all 18 variations could ensure you over 33% to the profit, which basic strategy alone grants you. These variations, which could add even more in a single-deck or a double-deck game, are famous for being the Illustrious 18. We shall dig deeper into them right after we discuss four variations to the basic strategy for games having the option to surrender. These four variations are known as the Fab Four.
CasinoCruise
Sign Up100% up to
$/€100
Royal Panda
Sign Up100% up to
$/€200
+ 10 Spins
Vegas Hero Casino
Sign Up100% up to
€200
+ 50 Spins
BitStarz Casino
Sign Up100% up to
€100
+ 180 Spins
Long-term Roulette Strategy
The Fab Four
While the Illustrious 18 are variations to the basic strategy for any blackjack game, the Fab Four are variations to help a player increase his/her profit in a game where the surrender option is offered. Don Schlesinger came up with the ”Fab Four” term, which refers to the top-four late-surrender plays based on the Hi-Lo system. You may play in such a manner, in case your true count is 0 or higher. Let us have a look at the Fab Four variations to the basic strategy, which are used in multi-deck games:
Running Count Keeping Hints
Learning to Keep a True Count
True Count Drills
Fab Four Basic Strategy Variation
The Illustrious 18
1. You need to surrender, if your hand is 15, the dealer's upcard is 9 and your true count is +3.
2. You need to surrender, if your hand is 15, the dealer's upcard is 10 and your true count is 0.
3. You need to surrender, if your hand is 15, the dealer's upcard is an Ace and your true count is +2 (in S17) or -1 (in H17).
4. You need to surrender, if your hand is 14, the dealer's upcard is 10 and your true count is +4.
Related Articles
